Water FractalTier 2
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1456
· median 1456
· range 1256–1656
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1309
Q3 1491
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
